Factoring the Public into NBA Betting

One of the major factors when betting any sport, including the NBA, is the public factor. What do I mean by the public factor? The public is the average person on the street that bets mainly for fun, but they do so on a regular basis. These bettors make up a solid percentage of sports gamblers around the world, and they definitely are a factor in every sport.

Before we can identify instances to go against the public when it comes to NBA betting, we first need to decide what exactly is a public play. In some cases this is an easy thing to spot, as teams like the Lakers, Spurs, and Pistons are routinely over bet by the public. Other times identifying these plays is more difficult. We also need to remember that when we are talking about NBA betting we are not talking about the NFL. That means that NBA public betting is not nearly as heavy or as easy to spot as it is in the ever- popular NFL. When it comes to public betting in the NBA we need to look first and foremost for public teams. Those teams are the high profile teams like the Lakers, Spurs, and Pistons, but they also can include teams with superstar players. Sometimes Philadelphia with Iverson will get overplayed, as will Cleveland with LeBron James. The public is much more likely to bet on a high-priced superstar, even if the value is not there. If you are looking to bet on teams like the Lakers with Kobe, the Sixers with Iverson, or the Cavaliers with James, you need to understand that the number is probably against you.

Once we have identified the public play, and that may be due to looking at the public teams, or teams with high profile stars, we then can see if there is value in going against the public play. What we need to be careful of is not going against a wiseguy play that looks like a public play. This can happen in NBA betting once in a while because wiseguys love to play the NBA. They may see value in a number and the public may follow. That creates a real problem for NBA bettors when the wiseguys are on a team like the Lakers or Spurs. When the public and the wiseguys get together on a game the best advice is to just lay off the play. Now, having given that warning, most of the time the wiseguys don't play public teams. So if you see a game moving that involves a public team it is probably not a wiseguy play.

NBA betting can involve going against the public, but not nearly to the extent of some other sports. Remember that it is better to look in a general direction against public teams, instead of looking at individual games. The sports betting public generally doesn't play the NBA heavily until the playoffs begin. Once the NBA playoffs, particularly the Finals begin, then you can put a little more stock into public line moves.